AI Spending Grows as Investors Look for Returns
The U.S. trading session was still underway at this snapshot. European markets had closed, but the latest verified European index and share moves below are intraday readings, not closing results. The Federal Reserve’s decision was due at 10:00 p.m. Baku time.
Brief
Azerbaijan. The Central Bank said it would publish its next interest-rate corridor decision on 29 October at 10:00 a.m. According to a Finance Ministry report, strategic foreign-currency reserves stood at $89.4 billion on 1 October, while public debt was AZN 23.89 billion. The explanation accompanying tomorrow’s rate decision will matter for the inflation and banking-liquidity outlook. e-cbar.az
Global policy. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% today. New Zealand’s central bank surprised markets that had expected an increase by holding its rate at 2.75%; the vote was four to three. The decisions show that central banks are responding to inflation risks at different speeds. www.bankofcanada.ca
Stocks
U.S.: chips are strong, but the broader market is mixed
In Reuters’ 7:39 p.m. Baku time snapshot on 28 October, the Dow was up 0.30% at 52,533.46, the S&P 500 up 0.22% at 7,739.58, and the Nasdaq up 0.02% at 26,482.16. These were intraday levels and may have changed since. Six of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors advanced, yet declining stocks outnumbered gainers 1.38 to 1 on the NYSE. The Nasdaq recorded 141 new 52-week lows against 62 new highs. Analysis: positive indexes did not mean that most individual stocks were rising. www.reuters.com
U.S. stocks in focus. The following prices are intraday quotes in U.S. dollars from approximately 9:04–9:05 p.m. Baku time on 28 October.
Stock | Quote | Driver and next test |
|---|---|---|
Vertiv (VRT) | $237.73; +13.99% | The data-centre infrastructure supplier reported a 61% increase in quarterly sales to $4.31 billion. Its adjusted operating margin reached 25.2%, organic order growth exceeded 100%, and it raised its full-year guidance. These are tangible signs of AI infrastructure demand. The counterpoint is the capital and working-capital needed to deliver rapid growth; investors will watch how orders convert into profit and cash. investors.vertiv.com |
Micron (MU) | $972.49; +4.71% | Strong results from South Korean memory-chip maker SK hynix improved sentiment toward the sector. SK hynix reported a 632% year-on-year increase in third-quarter operating profit and said long-term agreements covered more than half of its 2027–2028 production capacity. Analysis: that supports the demand outlook for memory, but a rival’s results do not guarantee Micron’s margins. Micron’s own pricing and orders remain the next test. news.skhynix.com |
Alphabet (GOOGL) | $326.05; +1.71% | A report about potential customer interest in Google’s AI chips supported the stock. In results due after the U.S. close, the more important question is whether cloud-revenue growth is keeping pace with capital spending and its effect on free cash flow. A report of potential purchases is not a completed contract. www.reuters.com |
Tesla (TSLA) | $401.82; −1.38% | The stock slipped after gaining more than 9% over the previous two sessions. Today’s decline alone does not establish a new operating problem. Investors still need concrete evidence of future revenue and cash returns from the company’s projects. www.reuters.com |
Boston Scientific (BSX) | $42.95; −4.68% | The medical-device maker came under pressure after lowering its annual profit forecast. Future reports will test whether sales growth can support margins and earnings. www.reuters.com |
The main AI test comes after today’s U.S. close. Microsoft and Alphabet are due to report. Markets have already priced in substantial spending on data centres and chips. Analysis: even strong cloud sales may not lift shares if free cash flow weakens or the returns on new investment remain unclear. www.reuters.com
Europe: bank earnings produce different reactions
The STOXX 600 stood at 641.99, down 0.30%, at 2:15 p.m. Baku time in Reuters’ latest verified snapshot. That is an intraday figure, not the European closing level. www.reuters.com
- Adyen: Shares in the Dutch payments company were down about 12% in morning trading. Third-quarter net revenue rose 23% to €738.1 million, and processed payments reached €451.1 billion; both beat expectations. Yet Adyen cut its 2026 EBITDA-margin target from around 52% to 50% and withdrew its 2028 target. Analysis: investors focused on the cost of growth, despite strong sales. The next major milestone is the 2027 outlook, expected in February. www.reuters.com
- Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered: They were up 2.3% and 3.3%, respectively, in Reuters’ 2:15 p.m. Baku intraday snapshot. Deutsche Bank beat profit expectations; Standard Chartered raised its full-year growth and profitability targets. Those are positive company results, but they do not describe the entire banking sector. www.reuters.com
- Santander and UBS: They were down 4.5% and 2%, respectively, in the same snapshot. Weaker results in Brazil weighed on Santander, while UBS reported profit roughly in line with expectations. Analysis: although higher rates have supported banks, credit provisions, competition for deposits and exposure to government bonds now deserve closer attention. www.reuters.com
ETFs
Prices: Intraday U.S.-dollar quotes from approximately 9:04–9:05 p.m. Baku time on 28 October.
Fund | Price and move | How to read today’s move |
|---|---|---|
SPY | $771.83; +0.28% | Tracks the S&P 500. The index was positive, but the greater number of falling stocks raises a question about the advance’s breadth. |
QQQ | $723.17; +0.27% | Has substantial exposure to large Nasdaq-100 growth companies. Microsoft’s and Alphabet’s results after the close are particularly relevant. |
SMH | $566.87; +1.59% | Holds semiconductor stocks. SK hynix’s report is a positive demand signal; individual chipmakers still need to demonstrate their own margins and customer orders. |
XLE | $68.80; +0.86% | Holds energy companies. Expensive oil may help, while easing supply risks could reduce that support. |
TLT | $81.43; −0.25% | Holds long-dated U.S. Treasuries and is sensitive to inflation and long-term yield expectations. |
SGOV | $100.69; +0.01% at 9:00 p.m. | Holds short-term Treasury bills; its price is less sensitive to rate changes than a long-duration bond fund’s. |
These figures describe fund price changes, not money entering the funds.
Latest verified industry-wide ETF flows: In estimates published on 27 October, the Investment Company Institute reported $45.82 billion in net ETF share issuance for the week ended 21 October. Equity ETFs accounted for $35.36 billion and bond ETFs for $9.57 billion. These are weekly estimates for the industry as a whole, not flows into SPY, SMH or any other specific fund today. Broad demand for equity ETFs does not erase today’s weak stock-market breadth. www.ici.org
Conditional scenarios: If AI spending is supported by cloud revenue and cash generation, the case for QQQ and SMH could strengthen. If earnings fail to show returns on that investment, their valuations may face pressure. A tougher Fed signal could weigh on TLT. SGOV’s price should be less sensitive, although its future yield depends on short-term rates. These scenarios are not investment recommendations.
FX and money markets
To avoid mixing live quotes taken at different times, the pairs below use the European Central Bank’s 28 October reference rates, based on its daily calculation at approximately 5:10 p.m. Baku time. They are not evening tradable quotes. The ECB publishes currencies against the euro; the U.S.-dollar crosses below are calculated from those figures. www.ecb.europa.eu
Pair | Reference rate |
|---|---|
EUR/USD | $1.1133 per euro |
GBP/USD | approximately $1.3288 per pound |
USD/JPY | approximately ¥157.96 per dollar |
USD/CHF | approximately CHF 0.8306 per dollar |
USD/CAD | approximately C$1.4047 per U.S. dollar |
AUD/USD | approximately $0.7033 per Australian dollar |
NZD/USD | approximately $0.5613 per New Zealand dollar |
New Zealand’s dollar was the clearest currency story. Markets had expected a rate increase, but the central bank held. The four-to-three vote leaves a later increase possible, while the gap between expectations and today’s decision put immediate pressure on the currency. Canada raised its rate, but Reuters reported little change in the Canadian dollar afterward; an anticipated decision may already have been reflected in prices. Britain’s budget also produced little immediate reaction in sterling or government bonds. www.rbnz.govt.nz
Money markets: Ahead of the Fed decision, the policy-rate target range was 3.75%–4.00%. Interest-rate futures cited by Reuters implied roughly a 9.4% probability of an increase today and an 86.2% probability of a move in December. These are market-implied probabilities, not a commitment by the Fed. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was around 5% intraday—a consequential level for long-duration bond funds and growth companies whose expected profits lie further in the future. www.reuters.com
Crypto
The following are intraday U.S.-dollar quotes checked at 9:20 p.m. Baku time on 28 October. Crypto trades continuously. The price feed did not provide a separate trade timestamp to the second, so the time refers to when the quotes were checked.
Asset | Price | Change shown by the price feed |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin (BTC) | $80,420 | −0.14% |
Ethereum (ETH) | $2,330.22 | −0.78% |
Solana (SOL) | $100.96 | +0.08% |
XRP | $1.31 | −0.76% |
BNB | $747.04 | −0.52% |
The change column uses the price feed’s comparison point. It does not cover the same time window as the 27 October ETF flows below.
Fund flows diverged by asset. For the last completed U.S. trading day, 27 October, Farside Investors reported $176.0 million in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, including $151.5 million into IBIT. Ethereum ETFs had $60.2 million in net outflows, and Solana ETFs had $19.2 million in net outflows. Fund-level data for 28 October were still missing: the automatically displayed “0.0” must not be interpreted as a finalized zero-flow day. farside.co.uk
Analysis: Bitcoin funds received inflows on two consecutive completed sessions—$110.3 million on 26 October and $176.0 million on 27 October—yet BTC showed no clear gain in the evening quote above. Fund demand is present, but price action has not confirmed a sustained advance. Recent ETH and SOL fund outflows are more consistent with their weak or nearly flat evening prices. A large withdrawal from one Solana fund, however, is insufficient evidence about activity across the entire network. farside.co.uk
What comes next: The Fed decision and the chair’s remarks could move the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite across both crypto and technology stocks. The finalized 28 October ETF flows will then offer another test of demand. Comparable, verified open-interest and liquidation figures were unavailable for this snapshot, so the price moves cannot reliably be attributed to leveraged positions being closed.
This briefing is for information and analysis only; it is not personalized investment advice.