Market briefing: inflation pressure and bank news

👋🏻 Hello!

The market took its coffee without sugar today — inflation was already high enough. 🙂

U.S. price growth has revived interest-rate concerns. Even companies reporting good results cannot count on their shares rising. In Azerbaijan, two banks are in focus: ABB’s nine-month profit and PASHA Bank’s dividend calendar announced today.

October 14, 2026. The U.S. trading session is still underway.

Azerbaijan: ABB’s profit growth and PASHA Bank’s dividend date

ABB: the key question is whether growth can last

ABB earned AZN 352.4 million in net profit in January–September, up 34.8% year on year. Interest income reached AZN 937.2 million, while non-interest income reached AZN 425.4 million. Assets increased 18.3% from the beginning of the year to AZN 16.12 billion.

When reading these results, the source of profit matters alongside its size. Sustainable growth in lending and service income has different implications for future quarters than a one-off transaction gain.

For shareholders, the next question is how much profit will remain in capital and how much will be distributed. Higher profit does not mean dividends will rise by the same percentage. Current bid and ask quotes have not been independently confirmed, so earlier prices are not presented as today’s market levels.

PASHA Bank: the second dividend installment is due October 30

According to the bank’s official announcement today:

▫️ The second installment totals AZN 53.52 million.
▫️ The dividend is approximately AZN 2.86 per share.
▫️ The last trading deadline to buy with dividend entitlement is October 27 at 4:30 p.m.
▫️ The record date is October 28 at 6 p.m., with payment on October 30. All times are Baku time.

Timing matters: settlement must be completed in time for the shareholder register. Investors buying for the dividend should also account for fees, the bid–ask spread and a possible price adjustment when the shares trade without that entitlement.

The latest consolidated results we confirmed for PASHA Bank cover the first half: profit of AZN 96.5 million, loans of AZN 4.08 billion, and deposits of AZN 7.75 billion. These are not third-quarter figures.

U.S. economy: inflation changes valuations again

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September consumer-price increases of 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, compared with annual inflation of 3.4% in August. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. Gasoline rose 9.1% in a month.

The difficulty for markets is that pressure also persists outside energy. Expensive fuel directly raises household costs and can spread through transportation and production into other prices.

In this environment, revenue growth alone may not be enough. Investors assess future earnings against the interest income available elsewhere while they wait for those earnings to arrive.

Stocks: six companies in focus

At 8:30 p.m. Baku time: Dow −0.30%, S&P 500 −1.10%, Nasdaq −1.66%. In the same update, Oracle fell 7.8% and Dell dropped 11.5%.

▫️ ASML — ASML. The company raised its annual sales outlook to €44–45 billion, with customer interest extending into 2029–2030. This signals strong equipment demand. For the shares, converting orders into revenue and managing expansion costs remain important.

▫️ Bank of America — BAC. The bank recorded a $1.2 billion regulatory charge, while adjusted earnings per share also missed expectations. Separating one-off costs from core performance matters: if weakness remains after excluding the fine, the issue extends beyond the fine.

▫️ Morgan Stanley — MS. Quarterly profit was $4.91 billion, or $3.03 per share. Equities trading revenue increased approximately 41%. Strong trading income supports results, but whether market-dependent revenues can be repeated is a separate question.

▫️ BlackRock — BLK. Quarterly net inflows reached $205 billion, with assets under management of $15.5 trillion. Asset scale supports its fee base. Falling market prices, however, can partly offset the effect of new inflows on asset values.

▫️ Oracle — ORCL. Today’s sharp decline highlights the relationship between borrowing costs and AI infrastructure spending. The key issue is when major projects will generate positive free cash flow.

▫️ Dell — DELL. Server demand and shareholder returns are different measures. Investors need sales growth to translate into margins, while watching working-capital requirements and competitive pricing.

Oil: expensive, with direction sensitive to headlines

Brent traded around $106 during the day. Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping supply concerns alive.

For Azerbaijan, expensive oil may support export revenues. But price and export volume are separate variables: receiving more for each barrel does not mean selling more barrels.

Globally, the effect runs in two directions. Producers receive support, while consumers and energy-buying businesses face higher costs. Strong energy shares therefore do not guarantee a rising broader market.

ETFs: time to consider interest-rate sensitivity

The following are conditional scenarios.

▫️ VOO: offers broad U.S. equity exposure, but remains affected by large companies. Stronger earnings across a wider range of businesses could support the fund.

▫️ QQQM: is sensitive to expectations for growth companies’ future profits. High rates combined with weak guidance could add pressure.

▫️ XLE: high oil prices may support some energy companies; easing supply risks would create the opposite scenario.

▫️ TLT: rising long-term Treasury yields pressure its price. Easing inflation and falling yields could provide support.

▫️ SGOV: focuses on short-term Treasury bills and is less rate-sensitive than TLT. It is a reminder that waiting for another opportunity can also generate income.

FX and gold: inflation news does not help everyone equally

The dollar index reached 102.86, an 18-month high. Reuters reported EUR/USD at 1.1121, GBP/USD at 1.3178, and USD/JPY at 158.81. Gold fell to $4,088.96 in another intraday update.

“Higher inflation must mean higher gold” does not work every day. If inflation news raises interest-rate expectations and strengthens the dollar, gold — which pays no interest — can come under pressure.

For the euro, the story also extends beyond the U.S.: energy-import costs and Europe’s own economic performance influence its direction.

Crypto: ETF inflows return, but durability remains untested

Bitcoin traded around $83,398 in a daily update. According to Farside Investors, October 13 brought net inflows of $175.7 million into Bitcoin ETFs and $24.8 million into Ethereum ETFs. Final October 14 flows are not yet available.

That is a positive change following earlier withdrawals. But one day does not establish a sustained institutional buying wave. Stable prices, consecutive inflows and resilient demand despite high rates would together provide a stronger signal.

Tonight’s main question is: can corporate profits offset the pressure of high interest rates? During earnings season, we will watch management’s outlook for the coming quarters as closely as the numbers themselves.

Have a good evening!

This briefing is for information and analysis and does not constitute personalized investment advice.