Oil is shaking up the markets today



👋🏻 Hi there!

I hope your day has gone well. It’s Aykhan here. I’ve gathered the evening’s main stories for you: oil is climbing, technology stocks are under pressure, and the euro is trying to recover its losses.

October 8, 2026. This review uses information published by 9:40 p.m. Baku time. The US session is ongoing; quotations come from different intraday snapshots.

Azerbaijan: the quick brief

▫️ Trade. President Ilham Aliyev said today that Azerbaijan’s trade with Central Asian countries increased by more than 50% in 2025.

▫️ Payments. “Global Innovations,” the owner of electronic payment platform “Epoint,” increased its registered capital by AZN 600,000, or 88.9%.

Stocks: AI is here, cheap money isn’t

At 11:23 a.m. ET, the Dow was down 0.47%, the S&P 500 0.39%, and the Nasdaq 0.55%.

Brent exceeded $104 during the day, while the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% in the morning report.

Our take: expensive energy raises companies’ costs, while higher rates reduce the present value of future earnings. Strong business news therefore doesn’t guarantee a rising share price.

▫️ Nvidia — NVDA: around −1.1%. The AI theme isn’t shielding the market from selling. Our take: upcoming reports need to demonstrate margins and customers’ investment plans alongside orders.

▫️ Tesla — TSLA: around −1.3%. One of the weaker technology giants today. Our take: high rates can pressure both its valuation and financing for vehicle purchases.

▫️ Broadcom — AVGO. According to the WSJ, the company is working to arrange more than $50 billion in financing for OpenAI. Our take: growing AI orders should be assessed alongside the projects’ financial burden.

▫️ Oracle — ORCL: around −2.1%. The stock is caught in broader technology weakness. Our take: watch how quickly data-centre investment translates into revenue and cash flow.

▫️ PepsiCo — PEP. Quarterly revenue rose 5.6% to $25.27 billion, but the company lowered its annual earnings forecast. Our take: turning sales growth into stronger margins is the key issue.

▫️ Applied Digital — APLD: around +3.8% premarket. The US data-centre operator’s quarterly revenue jumped 322% to $341.9 million. Debt stands at $6.4 billion. Our take: growth is strong, but financing costs deserve attention.

▫️ Wolfspeed — WOLF: around +14% premarket. The US chipmaker secured a conditional loan commitment of up to $1.5 billion. Our take: financing prospects improve, but receiving the money depends on meeting the conditions.

ETFs: oil, technology or a waiting position?

The following is our scenario analysis.

▫️ VOO — S&P 500. Broad US equity exposure. Strong earnings could provide support; high rates and concentration in large companies remain risks.

▫️ QQQM — Nasdaq-100. Greater exposure to growth companies. Falling bond yields could offer relief; rising yields would increase valuation pressure.

▫️ XLE — energy companies. Expensive oil could support some producers’ earnings. Reduced supply risks and falling oil prices are the opposite scenario. The fund tracks company shares rather than oil itself.

▫️ TLT — long-term US Treasuries. Falling yields could lift its price. Stronger inflation concerns create risk because of the fund’s sensitivity to rates.

▫️ SGOV — short-term Treasury bills. Less sensitive to rate changes than TLT. It can be considered for a waiting position; future rate cuts would reduce income.

FX: the euro comes back

Reuters’ intraday report quoted EUR/USD at 1.1216, GBP/USD at 1.3234, and USD/JPY at 158.06. The euro recovered from its daily low of 1.1171.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said further rate increases might be needed but stressed flexibility over their timing. He left the possibility of an October pause open.

Our take: it is too early to call the euro’s recovery a lasting reversal. Cheaper oil and softer rate expectations could support it; the opposite scenario could restore the dollar’s advantage.



Crypto: money leaves the funds

▫️ Bitcoin fell below $83,000 during the day. Ethereum traded below $2,600, while XRP faced pressure around $1.40.

▫️ Bitcoin ETFs: October 7 brought $484.9 million in net outflows, including $207.7 million from IBIT.

▫️ Ethereum ETFs: outflows reached $160.9 million on the same day, with $4.8 million leaving Solana funds.

Our take: weak prices are now accompanied by fund withdrawals. For a healthier recovery, we would want both stabilising prices and slowing outflows. These are October 7 flows; today’s final figures are not yet available.

My main question this evening: will oil’s rise stop? That matters for both rate expectations and risk assets.

Have a lovely evening. See you tomorrow!

Ayxan
Faros.az

This review provides information and analysis, not personalised investment advice.