Brief - Monday
Brief
- Azerbaijan: From January to September, exports to Italy totalled 8.88 million tonnes worth $5.51 billion. Volume fell 7.4% year on year, while value rose 10.4%. Italy accounted for 56.1% of Azerbaijan’s total exports. Exports to India reached 524,000 tonnes, nearly five times last year’s level, or 3.31% of the total. www1.report.az
- Energy and geopolitics: The Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities and Riyadh airport; Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claims at the time of reporting. Oil prices had eased from six-month highs amid reported U.S.–Iran mediation efforts. This leaves markets weighing the risk of supply disruption against the possibility of de-escalation. www.reuters.com
- Brazil: Brazilian equities came under sharp pressure after Lula’s election victory. The Bovespa fell 14.3% and trading was halted by a circuit breaker, according to AP. apnews.com
Stocks
U.S.: indexes rise, but technical weakness remains
At 19:30 Baku time on 26 October, the Dow was up 0.32% at 52,383.68, the S&P 500 had gained 0.92% to 7,693.85, and the Nasdaq was up 1.25% at 26,280.50. The U.S. session was still open, so these are intraday readings. Eight of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors were higher, and advancing shares outnumbered decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. However, Nasdaq-listed shares had recorded 262 new 52-week lows versus 69 new highs. The advance was reasonably broad by sector, but the number of new lows suggests weakness persisted among many individual stocks. www.reuters.com
Company | Intraday move and snapshot | What is driving attention |
|---|---|---|
Nvidia (NVDA) | $216.15, +2.46%, 21:12 Baku | The shares rose with the broader technology rebound. The larger question is whether spending on AI infrastructure will translate into durable revenue and cash flow for customers and suppliers. |
Meta Platforms (META) | $641.26, −0.21%, 21:12 Baku | Meta is reportedly considering raising as much as $95 billion in equity to fund AI infrastructure. That could help finance investment, but it also raises questions about dilution and the returns expected from the spending. |
Tesla (TSLA) | $396.45, +6.51%, 21:11 Baku | The stock rebounded strongly. A higher share price does not resolve the key questions around demand, margins and how much capital the company will need to deliver on its AI and robotics plans. |
CoreWeave (CRWV) | $56.91, +4.93%, 21:16 Baku | Its business connects AI demand to data-centre capacity and financing. The growth case depends on customer demand and utilisation; borrowing costs and the capital needed to expand remain key risks. |
Nebius (NBIS) | $162.44, +2.33%, 21:16 Baku | Investors are focused on whether the AI infrastructure build-out can support the company’s expansion. The next test is execution: turning capacity and customer demand into revenue and cash generation. |
Lumentum (LITE) | $836.62, +10.64%, 21:16 Baku | The sharp rise points to strong interest in optical components used in data centres. The move will need confirmation from orders and margins; a high valuation can leave the stock vulnerable if expectations cool. |
Dell Technologies (DELL) | $472.35, +3.49%, 21:16 Baku | Server demand offers exposure to AI infrastructure spending. Investors will look for that demand to translate into profitable growth, while monitoring pricing pressure and working-capital needs. |
AI spending is again a central market theme. Anthropic’s IPO filing reportedly showed first-half revenue of $16.3 billion and an operating loss of $693 million; a large portion of the reported net loss was attributed to changes in the fair value of convertible bonds. The filing also indicated that computing costs are expected to remain the company’s largest expense. These figures illustrate both the scale of AI demand and the cost of serving it. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are due to report this week, giving investors a near-term test of whether large infrastructure commitments are being matched by revenue growth and cash generation. www.reuters.com
Europe: company-specific results drive large moves
The latest reported STOXX 600 snapshot was 638.45, up 0.4% at 14:50 Baku time. European markets were closed by the evening; this is an intraday reading, not the closing level. Most sectors were higher at that snapshot, while energy fell 1.5% and travel and leisure rose 1.6%. www.reuters.com
- Genmab: Shares rose 13.7% after results from a Phase 2 study of petosemtamab. The reaction reflects a promising clinical catalyst, but Phase 2 data do not establish that a treatment will succeed in later trials or receive approval. ir.genmab.com
- Computacenter: Shares gained 9.5% after the company raised its minimum full-year adjusted pre-tax profit outlook to £425 million, above the cited consensus of £387.1 million. Its record order backlog also increased to £12.6 billion from £9.3 billion. The higher guidance and backlog are concrete support for the move; investors will still want to see orders convert into revenue and profit. computacenter.gcs-web.com
- Galp: Shares fell 9.7% after talks over a downstream deal with Moeve failed. The decline reflects the loss of a potential transaction catalyst; the next focus is on Galp’s standalone plans and any new strategic options. www.galp.com
ETFs
Intraday prices
Prices are in U.S. dollars and are intraday snapshots from 21:11–21:16 Baku time on 26 October.
ETF | Price and move | Exposure and what to watch |
|---|---|---|
SPY | $765.61, +0.74%, 21:11 | Tracks the S&P 500. Its market-cap weighting means the largest companies have the greatest influence. A sustained advance would be better supported if earnings strength spread across more sectors and stocks. |
QQQ | $713.53, +1.30%, 21:11 | Tracks the Nasdaq-100, with concentrated exposure to large growth and technology companies. It can benefit if cloud and AI investment produces earnings, but is sensitive to changes in long-term rates and expectations. |
IWM | $277.79, +0.74%, 21:12 | Provides exposure to U.S. small caps, which tend to be more sensitive to domestic financing conditions and economic growth. A lasting rise in borrowing costs could weigh on them. |
TLT | $81.69, +0.43%, 21:12 | Holds long-dated U.S. Treasuries and is highly sensitive to long-term yields. Lower yields can support its price; renewed inflation or borrowing concerns can work against it. |
XLE | $69.65, +0.46%, 21:11 | Tracks U.S. energy stocks. The sector may benefit from higher oil prices, but geopolitical risk can also increase volatility. |
SMH | $544.23, +3.23%, 21:15 | Semiconductor exposure makes it sensitive to AI-related orders, chip demand and valuation expectations. A positive move in the fund does not by itself confirm that the entire sector is participating. |
SGOV | $100.67, +0.01%, 21:16 | Holds 0–3-month U.S. Treasury bills. Its price is less sensitive to rate changes than TLT; its yield adjusts as short-term rates change. |
SPY and QQQ track broad U.S. large-cap and Nasdaq-100 indexes, respectively; XLE focuses on energy companies. TLT holds long-maturity Treasuries, while SGOV focuses on short-term Treasury bills. These structural differences explain why the funds can respond differently to the same market news. www.ssga.com
Latest reported fund flows
The latest LSEG Lipper data available in the cited report covered the week ending 21 October and was reported on 23 October. These are category-level U.S. fund flows, not flows into the specific ETFs above and not data for 26 October.
- U.S. equity funds received $5.07 billion, down 62% from the previous week. Large-cap funds received $8.63 billion, while small-cap funds saw $4.24 billion in outflows.
- Bond funds had $969 million in outflows; long-term government bond funds lost $3.3 billion.
- Money-market funds received $14.82 billion.
The data suggest investors favoured large-cap equities and cash-like funds over small caps and long-duration government bonds during that reporting week. Weekly category flows do not establish persistent demand or explain today’s ETF price movements. www.reuters.com
Conditional scenarios: If earnings growth broadens and AI investment produces measurable revenue, SPY and QQQ could receive support. If long-term yields rise again, the effect could be more pronounced on QQQ and TLT than on SGOV. A continued increase in oil prices could support XLE, while easing supply concerns could reduce that support. These are scenario descriptions, not investment recommendations.
FX and money markets
The following are intraday snapshots from 26 October; they are not closing exchange rates.
Pair or measure | Quote and move | Snapshot, Baku time |
|---|---|---|
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.96, +0.15% | 20:47 |
EUR/USD | 1.1182, −0.19% | 20:37 |
GBP/USD | 1.3358, −0.14% | 21:33 |
USD/JPY | 157.51, +0.43% | 20:58 |
USD/CAD | 1.4015, +0.06% | 21:18 |
USD/CHF | 0.8265, +0.16% | 21:29 |
AUD/USD | 0.7027, −0.10% | 21:31 |
NZD/USD | 0.5684, −0.28% | 21:09 |
The dollar was modestly firmer in the cited snapshots. The euro and sterling weakened against it, while the yen also fell. These moves point to a generally firm dollar, though the snapshots were taken at different times and should not be treated as a single synchronized market reading. www.investing.com
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.98% and the 2-year yield around 4.70% in the cited midday report. At the 26 October auctions, the 3-month bill yield was 4.05%, the 6-month yield 4.21%, and the 2-year note auction yield 4.708%. Markets were expecting the Fed to hold rates at its meeting on Wednesday, while the possibility of a rate increase in December remained a risk. Higher oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook. apnews.com
Crypto
Crypto trades around the clock. These prices are intraday snapshots from 20:48 Baku time on 26 October, not closing prices.
Asset | Price | 24-hour move |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin (BTC) | $79,824.46 | −0.31% |
Ethereum (ETH) | $2,310.01 | −0.76% |
Solana (SOL) | $100.87 | −0.40% |
XRP | $1.2876 | −0.58% |
BNB | $739.61 | +0.23% |
The leading assets were mostly lower in the cited snapshot, with BNB slightly higher. The price moves were modest, but their direction broadly fits a cautious tone across risk assets. www.exchangerates.org.uk
The latest completed U.S. ETF-flow data available was for 23 October: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $137.9 million in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs recorded $4.4 million in net inflows. Solana ETF flows were net zero. Final figures for 26 October were not yet available. The Bitcoin outflow was consistent with BTC’s slightly negative 24-hour move; Ethereum’s inflow diverged from ETH’s decline. One day of flows is not enough to establish a lasting demand trend. farside.co.uk
The next signals to watch are whether crypto ETF flows persist across several sessions, whether Bitcoin can hold near the current area, and whether demand broadens beyond BTC. No verified, time-stamped open-interest or liquidation data was available for this snapshot, so the price moves cannot be attributed here to leveraged liquidations.
This briefing is for information and analysis only and is not individual investment advice.