👋🏻 Hello!



Hope you’re having a great day. My name is Cengiz, and this time I’ll be bringing you the market overview.

Sometimes we rush through the fundamentals too quickly, fail to focus on what really matters, and in the end — well, you know what happens 😁 So let’s move straight to the important points.

Wall Street is having a fairly active session today. Bond yields are once again putting pressure on the broader market, but several individual stocks are making sharp moves. Here are the key developments in brief:

▫️ Nvidia ($NVDA) +0.8% — investors are focused on the company’s additional $150 billion share buyback authorization. This brings Nvidia’s total remaining repurchase capacity to $235 billion. The chip giant is staying positive despite weakness in the broader market.

▫️ AMD ($AMD) +0.9% — the company is acquiring AI startup World Labs for $8.2 billion. The market sees the deal as an effort by AMD to strengthen its position in artificial intelligence models and infrastructure.

▫️ Fair Isaac ($FICO) about -26% — one of the biggest drops of the day. Expanded opportunities for VantageScore, an alternative to FICO in the U.S. mortgage market, have raised concerns about the company’s long-term dominant position.

▫️ CarMax ($KMX) +6% — quarterly results came in above expectations. Revenue rose 20% to $7.9 billion, and the company is also preparing to restart share repurchases.

▫️ Carnival ($CCL) about +12% — the cruise operator reported record quarterly revenue of $8.4 billion. Strong bookings and travel demand pushed the shares higher.

▫️ Bloom Energy ($BE) about +12% — the stock jumped sharply on the back of expanded production capacity and positive analyst commentary. High electricity demand from AI data centers remains one of the main themes supporting investor interest in the company.

▫️ Apple ($AAPL) about -1.9% — high bond yields are once again putting pressure on large technology companies. Apple is among the biggest negative contributors to the Dow Jones today.

▫️ Walmart ($WMT) about -2.7% — one of the stocks weighing most heavily on the Dow during the session. The consumer staples sector is broadly weak.

Overall market picture: the Dow is down around 0.5%, the S&P 500 is lower by about 0.2%, while the Nasdaq is slightly negative. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.28%, reaching its highest level since 2007. This remains one of the key risks, particularly for highly valued stocks.

The main takeaway today: the broader market is showing a risk-off tone, but money is not leaving equities entirely. Selective buying continues in AI and semiconductor names such as Nvidia and AMD.

Sources: Reuters, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance.



ETFs



Alongside individual stocks, let’s also take a brief look at ETFs.

An ETF allows investors to gain exposure not to just one company, but to an entire index, sector, or group of assets. That usually means risk is more diversified than when investing in individual stocks.

The main issue in the current market is this: U.S. bond yields are extremely high, oil is trading above $100, expectations for additional Fed rate hikes have strengthened, but AI and mega-cap technology companies are still supporting the major indices.

According to Reuters, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.278% on September 29, its highest level since 2007.

▫️ SPDR S&P 500 ETF — $SPY

This is one of the simplest and most popular options. It tracks the S&P 500, giving exposure to around 500 large U.S. companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta and others.

Why is it interesting? For a long-term investor, it offers a way to invest in a broad basket of major U.S. businesses instead of trying to choose one individual winner.

Possible scenario: in the short term, high bond yields may continue to pressure $SPY. In addition, the current market rally remains heavily dependent on a relatively small group of mega-cap technology stocks. MarketWatch has noted that market breadth has weakened. However, if earnings remain strong and bond yields begin to decline, $SPY could regain a healthier upward trend.

Risk: Medium.

▫️ Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF — $QQQ

$QQQ is more concentrated in technology and growth stocks. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom and Meta all have significant weights in the fund.

Why is it interesting? If the AI investment theme continues, $QQQ could remain one of the main ETF beneficiaries.

Even though the broader market weakened on September 29, the semiconductor index rose around 1.8%, suggesting that money is still flowing into the AI theme.

Possible scenario: if bond yields stabilize, $QQQ could once again outperform $SPY. However, if the 10-year yield moves and stays above 5.3%, the risk of selling in highly valued technology stocks would increase significantly.

Risk: Medium-high.

▫️ Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF — $VTI

$VTI covers not only large-cap companies, but also thousands of mid-cap and small-cap U.S. stocks.

Why is it interesting? It allows investors to buy exposure to almost the entire U.S. stock market without having to answer the question: “Which company will be the winner?”

That is particularly relevant now because the S&P 500 rally has become highly concentrated in a relatively small group of large technology companies. $VTI provides broader diversification.

Possible scenario: if the market rally broadens from technology into banks, industrials and smaller companies, the environment for $VTI could become healthier. If mega-cap technology continues to dominate, $QQQ and $SPY may remain stronger.

Risk: Medium.

▫️ iShares Russell 2000 ETF — $IWM

$IWM tracks U.S. small-cap companies.

The situation here is somewhat different. Smaller companies are usually much more sensitive to borrowing costs than large corporations.

Possible scenario: the current environment of 5%+ bond yields is not favorable for $IWM. If the Fed raises rates further, small-cap companies could remain under pressure. However, if economic data weakens and rate expectations decline, $IWM could be one of the ETFs with stronger rebound potential.

Risk: High.

▫️ iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — $TLT

$TLT tracks long-term U.S. government bonds.

At first glance, government bonds may appear safe, but long-duration bonds are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Right now, this is a difficult environment for the fund. A global bond selloff has intensified and long-term yields have reached multi-year highs. According to MarketWatch, bond ETFs have suffered significant losses in September.

Possible scenario: if the Fed stops raising rates or the economy weakens sharply, $TLT could have significant upside potential. But if yields continue to rise, the fund may keep falling.

Risk: Medium-high at the moment.

▫️ SPDR Gold Shares — $GLD

$GLD is one of the largest ETFs tracking the price of gold.

Gold is usually considered a defensive asset during periods of geopolitical risk and inflation. But there is a major problem in the current environment: high real interest rates are negative for gold.

Gold fell around 4% on September 28, hitting a seven-week low. The main drivers were a stronger U.S. dollar, high bond yields and expectations for further Fed rate hikes.

On September 29, however, the price rebounded by around 1%.

Possible scenario: if tensions in the Middle East increase or bond yields fall, $GLD could strengthen again. On the other hand, if U.S. yields continue rising, gold may face another leg lower.

Risk: Medium.

▫️ Energy Select Sector SPDR — $XLE

$XLE includes ExxonMobil, Chevron and other major U.S. energy companies.

In the current macro environment, it is one of the more interesting sector ETFs. Brent crude remains above $100, while supply risks in the Middle East are creating a supportive environment for oil company earnings.

According to Reuters, higher oil prices are also increasing inflation risks and reinforcing pressure on interest rates.

Possible scenario: if Brent remains around $100–110, $XLE could stay more resilient than many other sectors. If U.S.-Iran tensions ease and oil prices fall sharply, $XLE could also face selling pressure.

Risk: Medium-high and highly dependent on oil prices.

▫️ Technology Select Sector SPDR — $XLK

$XLK focuses on large U.S. technology companies and provides somewhat more “pure” technology exposure than $QQQ.

Possible scenario: continued investment in AI remains the main positive catalyst for $XLK. But the biggest risk is still the same — bond yields.

Technology continues to support the broader market, while many other stocks remain weak. This shows that the market is becoming increasingly dependent on a narrow group of companies.

Risk: Medium-high.

How can we think about this in simple terms?

$SPY / $VTI — for long-term exposure to the broad U.S. equity market.

$QQQ / $XLK — for investors who believe the AI and technology rally can continue, but with higher volatility.

$IWM — could become more attractive if interest rates are expected to fall in the future.

$XLE — may benefit from high oil prices and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

$GLD — a geopolitical hedge, but high interest rates remain a serious headwind.

$TLT — could become attractive if interest rates are close to a peak. If yields continue to rise, however, it remains one of the more vulnerable options.

The main key to the current market remains U.S. bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.278%.

A decline in yields would be positive to varying degrees for $QQQ, $XLK, $IWM, $GLD and $TLT. A further increase, by contrast, would place additional pressure on long-duration bonds and expensive growth stocks.

This is not investment advice. It is simply a short map of the main risks and catalysts affecting major ETFs in the current market.

Sources: Reuters, MarketWatch and market data.

That’s all for today!

Wishing you profitable trades!