Strong growth, expensive AI

Hi. The latest U.S. share and ETF quotes below are from approximately 9:40–9:42 p.m. Baku time. The U.S. session is still underway. European markets have closed, but the latest verified STOXX 600 and European share moves cited here are intraday readings, not closing results.

Brief

Azerbaijan. The Central Bank kept its policy rate at 6.5%, with the interest-rate corridor at 5%–7.5%. It reported September inflation of 5.5% and expects 5.9% inflation at the end of both 2026 and 2027. Its forecast current-account surplus rose to $8.5 billion for 2026. Excess banking-system liquidity remained substantial at AZN 6.2 billion at the end of September. E-CBAR.AZ

U.S. economy. Third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. September PCE inflation was 3.6% year on year, and core PCE was 3.1%. The Federal Reserve left rates at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October; two policymakers voted for an increase. Analysis: resilient growth gives companies room to expand, but persistent inflation limits how much relief investors can expect from interest rates. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Europe. The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50%. It warned that higher energy prices could raise inflation and weaken growth, while tighter financing conditions may themselves slow the economy. President Christine Lagarde indicated that a December increase was under consideration, but the ECB made no commitment to a rate path. ecb.europa.eu

Stocks

U.S.: the index falls even as most sectors rise

In Reuters’ 7:49 p.m. Baku time intraday snapshot, the Dow was down 0.35%, the S&P 500 down 0.32%, and the Nasdaq down 1.20%. Yet eight of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors were higher. Advancers outnumbered decliners by 1.97 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.5 to 1 on Nasdaq. Analysis: this was largely an index-weighting problem. Alphabet’s sharp decline overwhelmed gains across many other shares; a falling S&P 500 did not mean a broad sell-off. These index figures are earlier intraday readings, not current or closing levels. Reuters

The share prices below are U.S.-dollar intraday quotes from 29 October, approximately 9:21 p.m. Baku time.

Alphabet (GOOGL): $283.83, down 12.64%. Quarterly revenue grew 25% to $127.6 billion, while Google Cloud revenue more than doubled to $30.7 billion. Those figures show real demand. The counter-evidence is cash generation: Reuters reported $9.07 billion in negative free cash flow, alongside rising spending on data centres and inventory for Google’s AI chip systems. The company said AI infrastructure spending would rise substantially next year. Analysis: investors are asking when fast cloud and chip sales will outweigh the cash required to build capacity. The next tests are search-advertising performance, the cash cycle for chip sales and the scale of 2027 investment. publicnow.com

Microsoft (MSFT): $524.44, down 1.24%. Its latest quarterly revenue rose 19% to $92.3 billion; Azure grew 48%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $63.9 billion. Operating cash flow of $58.0 billion exceeded $39.4 billion in property and equipment additions, leaving about $18.6 billion by that simple cash-flow calculation. That is a stronger near-term cash picture than Alphabet’s. Nonetheless, Reuters reported a possible bond sale of at least $25 billion, keeping financing and future spending in focus. The next question is whether Azure growth can remain strong as the company continues to expand capacity. Microsoft

Eli Lilly (LLY): $1,372.62, up 6.55%. The drugmaker raised its 2026 revenue outlook from $85 billion–$87 billion to $91 billion–$92 billion after quarterly revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion. Mounjaro and Zepbound sales reached $10.72 billion and $5.35 billion, respectively. The qualification is that realised prices fell 15%, partly offsetting 53% volume growth; its newer obesity pill also sold less than analysts expected. Future volume, pricing and the pill’s uptake will show how durable the growth is. Eli Lilly and Company

Mastercard (MA): $635.77, up 4.17%. Third-quarter revenue increased 14% to $9.8 billion, with cross-border volume up 11%. Payments activity and value-added services supported results. The risk to watch is whether that spending momentum persists as household finances and borrowing costs change. MarketScreener

Fortinet (FTNT): $134.63, down 22.66%. The cybersecurity company reported 20% revenue growth to $2.08 billion, 29% billings growth and $865 million in free cash flow, and it raised guidance. Reuters noted that the stock had risen 119% earlier this year and that investors had expected more. Analysis: good reported numbers can still lead to a steep decline when the share price assumes even stronger future results. Subsequent billings and guidance will test whether the reaction was mainly about expectations or a more lasting slowdown. Fortinet, Inc.

Amazon (AMZN): $246.11, down 3.33%. Its quarterly results are due after today’s U.S. close. The move is therefore not a reaction to those results. Investors will look at AWS growth, AI capital spending and free cash flow in light of Alphabet’s report. Reuters

Europe: energy earnings support shares

The last verified Reuters snapshot put the STOXX 600 up 0.40% at 646.69 points at 2:34 p.m. Baku time. That is an intraday level, not today’s close. In that snapshot, Shell rose 3.4%, TotalEnergies 1.9%, Airbus 2.6% and Renault 6.6%; European bank shares were down 1.3%. Reuters

Shell reported its strongest quarterly profit since 2022 and announced a $5 billion share-buyback programme. TotalEnergies reported $9.1 billion in adjusted net income and $12.3 billion in cash flow, with further buybacks planned. These are clear cash-return catalysts. Analysis: high energy prices benefit producers, but lower oil prices or changes in refining margins could make today’s earnings pace harder to repeat. Reuters

Airbus gained after maintaining its annual forecasts and production plans. Renault rose after quarterly revenue growth beat expectations. Their results offered support outside the energy sector, while banks lagged; BBVA fell 4.9% in the cited intraday snapshot after mixed results and concern over provisions. Reuters

ETFs

These are intraday U.S.-dollar quotes from approximately 9:20–9:22 p.m. Baku time on 29 October, not closing prices or fund flows.

Flows need a separate clock. ETFIQ’s latest reported fund-level data ran through 27 October, with coverage varying by fund. It reported approximately $4.3 billion leaving QQQ over its stated weekly window, while semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH received $3.3 billion and $2.3 billion, respectively, over an earlier 21–23 October window. Those periods are not directly comparable, and none of the figures describes today’s trading. The Investment Company Institute’s broader estimate showed $45.82 billion in net ETF share issuance for the week ended 21 October. A previous inflow cannot establish that buyers are supporting a fund during today’s decline. ETFIQ

Conditional scenarios: If subsequent earnings show that AI investment is producing cash returns, QQQ and SMH could regain support. If spending grows faster than cash generation, their concentrated exposures remain vulnerable. If long-term Treasury yields fall, TLT could benefit; renewed inflation or fiscal concerns would work in the other direction. SGOV’s future income will adjust as short-term rates change. These are scenarios, not recommendations.

FX and money markets

The table uses the European Central Bank’s 29 October reference calculation, normally made at about 5:10 p.m. Baku time. It is a consistent set of reference rates, not an evening live trading snapshot. U.S.-dollar cross rates are calculated from the ECB’s published euro rates. ecb.europa.eu

Reuters reported the euro later trading around $1.1163 after the ECB decision, illustrating why the earlier reference fixing should not be presented as the evening market rate. The dollar index was modestly lower in Reuters’ later snapshot. The yen remained in focus ahead of the Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday; New Zealand’s dollar was still absorbing yesterday’s unexpected rate hold. Reuters

In the money market, futures still implied nearly an 80% probability of a Fed increase in December after today’s inflation data. That is a market-implied probability, not a Fed commitment. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields remained close to 5% during the day. Analysis: the Fed’s decision to wait, combined with strong growth and elevated inflation, leaves investors exposed to changes in both expected policy rates and the extra yield demanded for holding longer-dated debt. Reuters

Azerbaijan’s domestic money-market position is different: the Central Bank said excess structural liquidity reached AZN 6.2 billion at end-September, and its AZIR overnight reference rate averaged 5.99% over the elapsed part of October, compared with 6.31% in August. These are period averages, not a 29 October spot rate. E-CBAR.AZ

Crypto

The following U.S.-dollar prices were checked at approximately 9:36 p.m. Baku time on 29 October. They are intraday snapshots, not closing prices. The feed did not provide a separate execution timestamp for the crypto quotes.

HYPE has a specific catalyst. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and Trade[XYZ] announced an agreement to develop a regulated U.S. perpetual-futures market using Hyperliquid infrastructure. ICE will invest in Trade[XYZ] and intends to operate the proposed regulated market. The market has not yet launched: the exchange, clearing structure and leveraged trading require regulatory approvals. Analysis: today’s HYPE rise prices in the possibility of wider use, while the size and timing of any resulting activity—and how much value accrues to the token—remain unproven. ir.theice.com

BTC and ETH ETF demand is diverging. Farside Investors’ completed 28 October figures show $137.3 million in net inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including $136.0 million into IBIT. Ethereum ETFs had $21.4 million in net outflows. BTC’s positive evening price and yesterday’s fund inflow point in the same direction, but they cover different time windows. ETH’s modest price gain comes despite the prior session’s ETF withdrawal, so the two measures do not confirm each other. The displayed 29 October “0.0” rows are incomplete and are not final zero-flow results. Farside Investors

ZEC’s move has some dated fund support: Farside shows $2.1 million entering its tracked Zcash fund on 28 October, before today’s price rise. That amount is small relative to the broader crypto market and does not establish what caused today’s gain. Solana’s 28 October fund row still contains unreported entries, so I am not treating its displayed total as a finalized flow. Farside Investors

The next checks are finalized 29 October ETF flows, whether HYPE’s proposed venue advances through approvals, and whether BTC and ETH retain their gains if bond yields or the dollar rise. I have not verified comparable current open-interest, funding and liquidation data for these assets; today’s moves therefore cannot reliably be attributed to a leveraged squeeze.

This briefing is for information and analysis only. It is not personalized investment advice.