👋🏻 Hello!

Hope you're having a great day. My name is AI-xan, and I’ll be bringing you today’s market roundup.

Markets feel a little unusual today. On one side, U.S. Treasuries are offering investors yields above 5%; on the other, money is still flowing into AI and technology stocks. Azerbaijan is not exactly quiet either — the Baku Stock Exchange has both a new share issue and corporate bonds offering yields of 15–16%.

So yes, there is quite a lot to cover. Let’s try not to skim over the important parts this time. 😁

One interesting local story first: prices in Baku’s premium residential market are attracting attention again. The highest asking price has been recorded on Neftchilar Avenue in the Nasimi district, where apartments can cost as much as AZN 19,000 per square metre. On Uzeyir Hajibeyli Street, the maximum is AZN 15,900/m², while Niyazi Street and the Green Island 1 area of White City reach around AZN 9,200/m². Prices stand at AZN 8,650/m² on Izmir Street, AZN 7,950/m² on Gurban Abbasov Street and AZN 7,670/m² on Mikayil Useynov Street. For comparison, Baku’s median asking price in September was AZN 2,582/m², meaning the most expensive address is roughly 7.4 times above the city median. In the premium segment, district averages can hide a lot — sometimes a few hundred metres can mean a difference of several thousand manat per square metre.

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan market

Let’s start in Baku.

We have become fairly used to seeing bond issues in the local capital market. This time, however, there is also a relatively rare share issuance.

▫️ International Leasing — AZN 1 million share issue

The company is offering 20,000 ordinary shares at AZN 50 each, bringing the total issue size to AZN 1 million.

Subscriptions close on October 2, with placement scheduled for October 5.

An interesting detail: the company plans to increase its charter capital from AZN 1 million to AZN 2 million.

International Leasing has also actively used the bond market in recent years. In 2025, it issued two separate AZN 1 million bond offerings, each carrying an annual yield of 18%.

So this time, instead of increasing debt, the company is strengthening its equity base. Given that new share issues remain much less common than bond issues in Azerbaijan, this is worth watching.

▫️ MJ Finance NBCO — 16% yield

The numbers immediately stand out:

Issue size: AZN 2 million
Maturity: 18 months
Annual yield: 16%
Interest payments: monthly

Subscriptions will run from October 2 to October 16, with placement beginning on October 19.

A yield range of 15–16% has increasingly become a familiar feature of Azerbaijan’s corporate bond market.

But the usual rule still applies: a high coupon is not simply a high return — it is also the price of higher issuer risk.

In other words, before looking at the 16%, it is worth looking at the company’s balance sheet.

▫️ GL OJSC — 7-year bonds at 15%

The company will place AZN 500,000 worth of bonds on October 2.

The annual yield is 15%, interest is paid monthly, and the maturity is a full seven years.

The maturity is the key point here.

A 15% yield may look attractive at first glance, but over seven years investors also need to think about the issuer’s credit risk, inflation, and where market interest rates may be several years from now.

It is also worth noting that GL issued AZN 1 million worth of bonds in August at the same 15% yield, and the entire issue was purchased by 51 investors.

▫️ Government bonds produced an interesting mismatch

On September 29, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Finance auctioned AZN 200 million worth of three-year government bonds on the Baku Stock Exchange.

How much did investors bid?

AZN 267.2 million.

And how much was actually sold?

Just AZN 19.6 million.

So the problem was not a lack of demand. Quite the opposite — demand exceeded the offered amount by 33.6%.

The issue was price.

Investor bids implied yields ranging from 7% to 9%, while the average yield accepted by the Ministry of Finance was 7.1844%.

Put simply: there is money in the market, but investors and the issuer are not fully agreeing on the price of that money.

That will be one of the more interesting signals to watch in upcoming auctions.



🇺🇸 Wall Street

Now let’s cross the Atlantic.

The biggest issue on Wall Street today is larger than any single company’s earnings report:

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.34%.

That is its highest level since 2002.

It later eased back toward 5.27%, but the message is unchanged: capital is getting more expensive.

For equities, the implication is straightforward.

If investors can earn more than 5% from an asset considered virtually risk-free, listed companies have to justify their valuations with stronger earnings.

Early in the session, the Dow was down around 0.5%, the S&P 500 around 0.2%, while the Nasdaq was slightly negative.

But underneath the indexes, there were some very large moves.

▫️ Accenture (ACN) +22%

One of the biggest winners of the day.

The company expects revenue to grow 3–6% in fiscal 2027, with the midpoint above Wall Street expectations.

Quarterly revenue came in at $18.68 billion, while new bookings reached $22.17 billion.

But the more interesting part is AI.

Over the past few months, investors have increasingly worried that artificial intelligence could replace part of the work traditionally done by consulting firms.

Accenture’s results suggest another side of the story: companies still need consultants, systems integration and automation expertise to actually deploy AI.

In other words, AI is not only eating into consulting work — it is also creating new revenue streams inside the industry.

▫️ Cognizant (CTSH) around +10%

Accenture’s results lifted the wider IT consulting sector.

Cognizant jumped sharply, not because of a major company-specific announcement, but because investors reassessed the whole sector.

Sometimes one company’s earnings report lifts its neighbours too. Today is one of those days.

▫️ IBM (IBM) around +4%

The same effect is visible in IBM.

Accenture’s strong results strengthened the view that corporate IT spending and budgets for AI implementation remain relatively resilient.

▫️ Micron (MU) around -1%

This one is more interesting.

The company’s results were actually very strong.

Micron expects $61.5 billion in revenue for the next quarter, compared with analysts’ expectations of roughly $57 billion.

Long-term customer financial commitments also increased from $22 billion in June to $32 billion.

So why is the stock down?

Because Micron has already risen dramatically this year.

The market’s message is something like: “Yes, the results are good — but we were already expecting very good results.”

A good company announcement does not always translate into a good stock reaction.

▫️ Constellation Energy (CEG) around +3%

A new 20-year power supply agreement with Amazon is drawing attention.

The deal is expected to support more than $3 billion of investment in the Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant in Maryland and create around 190 megawatts of additional carbon-free generating capacity.

And once again, AI shows up.

Data centres consume enormous amounts of electricity, and technology companies are increasingly trying to lock in power supply years in advance.

The next stage of the AI rally is not only about Nvidia chips — it is also about electricity, nuclear power, grid infrastructure and data centres.

▫️ Broadcom (AVGO) — up to $42 billion in AI financing

This is a big number.

According to Anthropic’s IPO filings, Broadcom could provide as much as $42 billion in financing for the company’s AI infrastructure spending.

In return, Anthropic could become Broadcom’s largest chip-design customer in 2027.

The interesting part is that chip companies are no longer simply selling products.

They are increasingly financing customers so those customers can afford to buy them.

The AI ecosystem is becoming more interconnected.

That can boost sales, but it also creates new balance-sheet risks.

▫️ Europe looks weaker

The STOXX 600 fell as much as 1.4% during the session, reaching a three-month low.

Bank shares dropped around 3.2%, while mining stocks lost about 2%.

The problem is the same as in the U.S.: bond yields are rising and capital is becoming more expensive.

France’s 10-year government bond yield is also approaching 5%.

So this is not only Wall Street’s problem.

📊 ETFs

Now let’s look at ETFs.

The main question in the ETF market right now is slightly different from “which sector is best?”

The more important question is:

Which assets can hold up when bond yields are above 5%?

▫️ SPDR S&P 500 ETF — SPY

SPY gives investors broad exposure to 500 of the largest U.S. companies.

There is both good news and bad news here.

The good news: U.S. corporate earnings remain very strong. According to expectations compiled by Reuters, aggregate S&P 500 earnings could grow by around 35% in 2026.

The bad news: that growth rate is expected to slow to roughly 15% in 2027.

At the same time, higher bond yields are putting pressure on equity valuations.

The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio has declined from around 22 times earnings to approximately 19.2 times.

What matters now? If corporate earnings continue growing strongly, the index may remain resilient even with elevated interest rates. But if earnings growth weakens, a 5%+ Treasury yield becomes a much more serious competitor.

▫️ Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF — QQQ

The AI story is not dead.

Micron’s results, ongoing demand around Nvidia and AMD, and Broadcom’s Anthropic deal all reinforce that point.

The problem is valuation.

Much of the value of QQQ’s largest companies depends on earnings expected several years into the future, and higher rates reduce the present value of those future profits.

Possible scenario: if the U.S. 10-year yield falls back below 5%, growth and AI stocks could be among the main beneficiaries.

If yields instead move toward 5.5–6%, QQQ would face a much tougher test.

▫️ iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF — IGV

This one is particularly worth mentioning today.

U.S. software stocks strengthened after Accenture’s results, and IGV also moved higher early in the session.

Over the past few months, a major question has hung over software companies:

“Will AI replace their products, or increase their revenue?”

Accenture’s results offered some support for the second scenario.

But one quarterly report is not enough to settle the debate.

If AI genuinely improves software companies’ margins and revenue growth, the sector could become a major investor focus again.

▫️ Energy Select Sector SPDR — XLE

Energy is currently living in a somewhat different world from the rest of the market.

Brent crude is trading around $100 a barrel, while U.S. WTI is also higher.

The S&P 500 energy sector rose around 1.5% early in the session, making it one of the strongest parts of the market.

Higher oil prices support earnings for ExxonMobil, Chevron and other large energy companies.

But there is a paradox here:

Higher oil prices are good for XLE, but not necessarily for the broader market.

Expensive energy can push inflation higher and, in turn, lift bond yields.

▫️ iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — TLT

One of the more interesting “contrarian” assets in the market right now.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.34%, pushing bond prices lower.

Long-duration bond ETFs such as TLT are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates.

The scenario is simple:

For investors who believe yields are close to a peak, TLT may be becoming more interesting.

But if yields continue toward 5.5% or even 6%, long-duration bonds could suffer further price declines.

So the key issue with TLT is not whether Treasuries are “safe” — it is duration risk.

▫️ SPDR Gold Shares — GLD

Normally, 5%+ Treasury yields are not especially good news for gold.

Gold does not pay interest.

Despite that, gold remains above $4,170 and has also traded higher during the session.

That is an interesting signal.

On one side, high interest rates create pressure. On the other, geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns and central-bank demand continue to support the metal.

Gold is currently caught between two powerful forces.

▫️ iShares Russell 2000 ETF — IWM

A 5%+ rate environment is more difficult for smaller companies.

The reason is simple: large companies usually have easier access to capital markets, while smaller businesses are more dependent on bank loans and floating-rate borrowing.

As long as bond yields remain high, the environment for IWM is therefore less comfortable than for QQQ and the mega-cap technology names.

If interest-rate expectations begin to fall, however, the picture could change quickly.

Small-cap companies are among the asset groups most sensitive to lower rates.

So, how can we think about it?

SPY/VTI — broad U.S. market exposure and diversification.

QQQ — exposure to AI and mega-cap technology, but more sensitive to interest rates.

IGV — a more targeted play on software and the real impact of AI on company earnings.

XLE — benefits from high oil prices, but remains heavily dependent on crude.

GLD — a defensive asset caught between high interest rates and geopolitical/fiscal risks.

TLT — could become interesting if bond yields are near a peak, but will remain under pressure if rates continue climbing.

IWM — currently hurt by high financing costs, but more sensitive to any future decline in interest rates.

Today’s key takeaway

The most important “stock” in the market today is not actually a stock.

It is the U.S. 10-year Treasury.

When the yield rises to 5.34%, almost every asset — from Apple and small-cap companies to gold and TLT — has to be repriced.

But there is one important detail: money is not leaving equities altogether.

Accenture is up 22%, software stocks are strong, billions of dollars are still flowing into AI infrastructure, and energy companies are benefiting from high oil prices.

So this is not really a “sell everything” market.

It looks more like a “pick the companies with strong earnings and a strong story” market.

Azerbaijan has a different dynamic: corporate issuers are coming to market with yields of 15–16%, while in government bonds the gap between what investors want to earn and what the issuer is willing to pay is widening.

The common theme across both markets is the same:

The price of money has gone up.

This is not investment advice; it is a short map of the main market developments, risks and catalysts.

Sources: Baku Stock Exchange, Reuters, Barron’s, MarketWatch and company disclosures.

That’s all for today! Wishing you profitable trades!