Market briefing: bank earnings and AI concerns

October 13, 2026

👋🏻 Hello!

There was a time when saying “AI” was enough to impress the market.

That is tonight’s main theme. Heavy technology spending is facing fresh scrutiny, U.S. banks have opened earnings season, and the dollar has pulled back slightly. In Azerbaijan, ABB has released its results, while the economy’s nine-month picture has been updated.

October 13, 2026. This briefing is based on information obtained by 10:10 p.m. Baku time (7.10 p.m. ) London. The U.S. session is still underway; quotes reflect different points during the day and are not closing figures. Scenarios discussed in the text are editorial analysis.

Azerbaijan: ABB reports, while economic signals diverge

▫️ ABB has released its results. The bank earned AZN 352.4 million in net profit in January–September, up 34.8% year on year. Interest income increased 16.3% to AZN 937.2 million, while non-interest income rose 30.3% to AZN 425.4 million. Assets grew 18.3% from the beginning of the year to AZN 16.12 billion. The reported share price is AZN 0.33.

The notable point is that revenue grew faster than total expenses. Strong profit, however, should not be equated with a future dividend decision: dividends depend on a separate decision, capital requirements and subsequent results.

▫️ The economy grew 1.5% over nine months. GDP reached AZN 102.05 billion. Value added in the non-oil and gas sector increased 2.6%, while the oil and gas sector contracted 1.2%. Information and communication grew 11.1%, transportation and storage expanded 10%, and construction declined 8.7%.

▫️ The International Monetary Fund forecasts economic growth in Azerbaijan of 1.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Average annual inflation is projected at 5.8% and 5.6%, respectively.

These figures show sectors within the same economy moving at different speeds. Higher oil prices can help export revenues, but they do not automatically offset falling production or weakness elsewhere.

Stocks: AI under scrutiny

At 8:23 p.m. Baku time, the Dow was down 0.34%, the S&P 500 0.12%, and the Nasdaq 0.14%.

▫️ Micron — MU: −4.6%. Concerns about Chinese competition in memory chips intensified selling.

▫️ Microsoft — MSFT: +0.9%.

▫️ Meta — META: +2%.

▫️ Citigroup — C: −3.4%.

▫️ Goldman Sachs — GS: approximately +0.5%. Market reactions to bank earnings varied.

The market is not passing the same judgment on every technology company. Investors are trying to distinguish demand for AI from the profits generated by that demand. Data-center spending affects cash flow today; the revenue it produces comes later. High interest rates make that wait more expensive.

There is another interesting tension: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.223% during the day, yet stocks did not stage a broad rally. This suggests today’s concerns extend beyond interest rates. Corporate profits and the returns on investment are also being questioned.

U.S. banks: profits rise

▫️ Goldman Sachs increased third-quarter profit 29% to $5.29 billion, while revenue rose 23% to $18.68 billion.

▫️ Citigroup increased profit 40% to $5.2 billion.

▫️ JPMorgan reported profit of $15.31 billion and revenue of $50.17 billion.

▫️ Wells Fargo increased profit 6% to $5.95 billion, but revenue fell short of expectations.

Citigroup’s profit is rising, while its shares are falling. This illustrates one of the market’s most useful lessons: a good result and a result that beats expectations are not the same thing. Optimism already priced into the stock, the sources of revenue and management’s outlook also shape the reaction.

According to Reuters, banks reported some slowdown in activity, while their deal pipelines remained strong. If markets stabilize, delayed transactions could turn into revenue; if uncertainty persists, that revenue may take longer to arrive.

Oil: Brent retreats, WTI rises

At 8:59 p.m. Baku time, Brent was down 0.6% at $106.06, while WTI rose 0.8% to $94.47. Expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies are being weighed against risks surrounding Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Saying “oil is falling” does not capture the full picture today: the two main benchmarks are moving in opposite directions. Contract specifications, regional supply and logistics differences affect their prices.

A modest decline in Brent also does not mean energy has become cheap. Oil around $106 remains a significant cost for transportation, production and household budgets.

ETFs: different sensitivities to the same news

The following are conditional scenarios, rather than daily performance figures.

▫️ VOO — broad U.S. equities. Earnings growth spreading to more companies could support the fund. Weak profit guidance would have the opposite effect.

▫️ QQQM — Nasdaq-100. AI revenues need to meet expectations. Heavy investment combined with weak cash flow could create pressure.

▫️ XLE — energy companies. High oil prices support some producers; easing supply risks could weaken that advantage.

▫️ TLT — long-term U.S. Treasuries. A sustained decline in yields could support prices. A one-day drop does not confirm a lasting reversal.

▫️ SGOV — short-term Treasury bills. Less sensitive to interest-rate changes than long-term bonds. Its role is more about temporarily placing cash than choosing the next market winner.

Fund descriptions are based on issuer information.

FX and gold: the dollar takes a breather

Reuters’ intraday figures showed the dollar index easing to 102.27. EUR/USD stood at 1.1189, and USD/JPY at 158.38. Markets put the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its October meeting at approximately 80%.

A softer dollar and lower Treasury yields also offered relief to gold: an earlier report showed it trading above $4,200.

It is too early to treat the euro’s one-day recovery as a major turnaround. The main test is tomorrow’s U.S. inflation report. A higher-than-expected reading could revive interest-rate concerns; a softer figure could allow the dollar to retreat further.

Crypto: watch prices, but do not forget fund flows

▫️ Bitcoin traded around $83,100 in an earlier report.

▫️ Ethereum stood at approximately $2,502 in MetaMask’s October 13 figures.

▫️ Ethereum ETFs reportedly recorded $85.4 million in net outflows on October 12. These are yesterday’s flows, rather than today’s final figures.

Prices stabilizing and fresh money returning to the market are different developments. A weaker dollar may offer short-term support, but a more durable recovery also requires stronger buying demand and improving fund flows.

If we had to choose one number to watch tomorrow, it would be U.S. inflation. The same release could change the outlook for the dollar, bonds, technology stocks and crypto.

This briefing is for information and analysis and does not constitute personalized investment advice.