Oil tops $106, chip stocks slide — annual inflation eases in Azerbaijan

October 12, 2026

👋🏻 Hello!

I hope your day went well. We’ve gathered the evening’s main stories: oil is climbing again, Wall Street stocks are taking different paths, and the dollar remains strong. Azerbaijan has also released its September inflation figures: annual price growth eased, while monthly inflation accelerated.

October 12, 2026. This briefing uses information obtained by 9:55 p.m. Baku time. The U.S. trading session is still underway; prices reflect different points during the day and are not closing figures.

Azerbaijan: inflation, wages and trade

▫️ Inflation. Annual inflation stood at 5.5% in September, down from 5.7% in August. Monthly price growth accelerated from 0.2% to 0.9%. Average consumer prices in January–September were 5.7% higher than in the same period last year.

▫️ Wages. The average monthly nominal wage in January–August reached AZN 1,173, up 7.2% year on year. As of September 1, employee numbers approached 1.777 million, including around 943,000 in the non-state sector.

▫️ Foreign trade. Trade turnover in the first eight months reached $33.93 billion, with a $11.09 billion surplus. Azerbaijan traded with 175 countries.

Oil: supply risks return to the spotlight

▫️ Brent rose about 2% to $106.76 during the day, while WTI reached $93.69. Attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers intensified supply concerns. News of additional Russian diesel exports did not remove those concerns.

▫️ Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast from $85 to $90 a barrel, citing persistent supply risks.

Our take: a higher forecast does not necessarily mean oil will rise from today’s price. The $90 December forecast remains below the current market level, so the bank still expects some easing. Higher oil prices may support Azerbaijan’s export revenues while increasing energy and transport costs worldwide.

Stocks: Microsoft gains, chipmakers face pressure

At 8:12 p.m. Baku time, the S&P 500 was up about 0.1%, the Dow gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Chevron rose 1.4%, while Micron dropped 2.8% and AMD declined 2.4%.

The following moves reflect Reuters’ figures at 7:28 p.m. Baku time.

▫️ Microsoft — MSFT: +1.4%. Plans for a major rollout of its own AI chips helped lift its market value above $4 trillion again.

▫️ Salesforce — CRM: +2.4%. Bank of America upgraded the stock from “underperform” to “buy.”

▫️ Meta — META: +3.9%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector index fell 2.7%.

Our take: saying “technology is rising” or “technology is falling” misses today’s picture. Investors are choosing between individual companies. Turning AI projects into revenue and profit will matter as much as the money invested in them.

ETFs: what could today’s news mean for these funds?

The following is our scenario analysis based on fund structure, rather than actual daily performance.

▫️ VOO — S&P 500. Offers broad exposure to large U.S. companies. Strong earnings could provide support; higher energy costs could squeeze profits.

▫️ QQQM — Nasdaq-100. Offers exposure to large growth companies. Today’s chip sell-off deserves attention, while AI revenues meeting expectations could support a recovery.

▫️ XLE — energy companies. High oil prices may support some producers’ earnings. Improving supply and falling oil prices would create the opposite scenario. The fund tracks energy company shares.

▫️ TLT — long-term U.S. Treasuries. Softer interest-rate expectations could support its price. Inflation concerns and rising yields would create pressure.

▫️ SGOV — U.S. Treasury bills maturing in 0–3 months. Less sensitive to interest-rate changes than long-term bond funds. It may be considered for temporarily holding cash; future rate cuts could reduce its income.

FX: the dollar holds its advantage

Reuters’ intraday figures put EUR/USD at 1.1180, GBP/USD at 1.3230, and USD/JPY at 158.57. The dollar index stood at 102.39, near an 18-month high. Markets priced an approximately 81% probability that the Fed would leave rates unchanged this month. Wednesday’s U.S. inflation report is the main focus.

Our take: if higher oil prices intensify inflation concerns, expectations of high interest rates could support the dollar. Weaker-than-expected inflation could offer relief to the euro and other currencies.

Crypto: a rebound, but confidence remains fragile

▫️ Bitcoin traded around $83,313 in an earlier report, up 0.42% over 24 hours.

▫️ Ethereum reached approximately $2,551, gaining 2.09% over 24 hours. Over the week, however, Bitcoin remained down about 3%, while Ethereum was down 6.1%.

▫️ Fund flows. The Economic Times, citing market participants, reported heavy outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 7–8. These are figures from earlier days, rather than final October 12 flows.

▫️ Risk is shifting toward altcoins. Barron’s, citing CoinMarketCap analysts, reported that total open interest in crypto derivatives rose 15% over the past week, while Bitcoin’s open interest fell 6%.

Our take: one day of gains does not confirm a lasting turnaround. A healthier recovery would need price stability alongside easing ETF outflows. Growing leveraged positions in altcoins increase the risk of sharp moves in either direction.

My main question tonight: how much will expensive oil affect corporate profits and inflation? Upcoming bank earnings and U.S. inflation data will help shape the market’s next direction.

Have a good evening. See you tomorrow!

This briefing is for information and analysis and does not constitute personalized investment advice.