Yesterday’s records — what changed today?
👋🏻 Hi there!
I hope your day is going well and you have a little time for yourself this evening. It’s AI-Khan here. Let’s catch up on the markets — there’s an interesting shift behind today’s numbers.
October 7, 2026: the US session is still underway. Prices below come from different intraday snapshots and are not closing figures.
🇦🇿 What’s supporting the budget?
Azerbaijan’s January–September tax receipts reached AZN 13.63 billion, up 9.4% year over year. Receipts from the non-oil-and-gas sector rose 12.6% to AZN 10.33 billion.
Our take: faster growth in non-oil receipts is encouraging for the budget. Tax collection does not directly measure real economic growth, however: prices, administration and business turnover also affect the result.
📉 A pause after the records
At 11:26 a.m. ET: the Dow was down 1.06%, the S&P 500 0.57%, and the Nasdaq 0.67%. The US 30-year Treasury yield had reached 5.68%.
Our take: higher bond yields increase competition for investors’ money. Companies can deliver solid results while investors become less willing to pay a high multiple for those earnings.
▫️ Nvidia — NVDA: −0.9%. The stock is participating in the chip-sector sell-off. For us, the questions are both whether AI demand holds up and how much future growth the price already assumes.
▫️ Alphabet — GOOGL. Google introduced Playground, an experimental platform for creating games through text prompts. Our take: reaching a new audience is an opportunity; the revenue impact still needs to be demonstrated.
▫️ Unity — U: around +4% in early trading. Investors welcomed its Google partnership. Our take: platform adoption and commercial results will matter more as the story develops.
▫️ Roblox — RBLX: around −1%. The Google–Unity platform raised competition concerns. Our take: watch user acquisition and Roblox’s ability to retain creators.
▫️ Webull — BULL. A US congressional committee raised concerns about the company’s China ties and data security, putting the stock under pressure. These are the committee’s allegations. Our take: regulatory uncertainty can overshadow business performance.
▫️ Booking — BKNG. Reuters reports that the FTC is preparing possible action involving Priceline. An investigation is confirmed; a final penalty has not been established. Our take: potential legal costs and advertising changes deserve attention.
▫️ Neogen — NEOG. The company beat expectations and raised its annual outlook, yet the stock is falling. Our take: investors also want confidence that the strong quarter can be repeated.
🧺 Which ETF scenarios matter?
These are the funds’ exposures and our scenario analysis.
▫️ VOO — broad US equities. Provides S&P 500 exposure. Stable yields could improve conditions; concentration in large companies remains a risk.
▫️ QQQM — Nasdaq-100. Offers exposure to growth companies. Strong earnings could provide support, while high rates could pressure valuations.
▫️ SMH — semiconductors. A more direct sector exposure to AI infrastructure. Rising orders could help; a sector sell-off also hits the fund more directly.
▫️ TLT — long-term US Treasuries. Falling yields could support its price. Further increases could deepen losses because of its high sensitivity to rates.
▫️ SGOV — short-term US Treasury bills. Less sensitive to rates than TLT. It can be considered for a waiting position, although income declines as rates fall.
💵 The dollar moves ahead again
Reuters’ intraday report put EUR/USD at 1.1185, GBP/USD at 1.3212, and USD/JPY at 158.16.
Higher oil prices are supporting the dollar. Investors are waiting for the Fed’s September meeting minutes later today.
Our take: a firm message on rates could support the dollar. A softer tone could give the euro and pound some breathing room. For the yen, the US–Japan interest-rate gap remains a key variable.
₿ Money comes in, prices fall
▫️ Bitcoin dipped to approximately $83,800 early in the day. Over 24 hours, $487.2 million in long positions were forcibly closed.
▫️ Ethereum and XRP also weakened: Barron’s intraday report quoted approximately $2,573 and $1.44, respectively.
▫️ October 6 ETF flows: US spot Bitcoin funds received $118.8 million in net inflows, while Ethereum funds recorded $201.9 million in net outflows.
Our take: inflows into Bitcoin funds do not mean buying across the entire crypto market. Forced closures of leveraged positions can amplify short-term moves. Final October 7 ETF flows are not yet available.
What I’m watching this evening: how bonds and the dollar respond to the Fed’s message. That could offer the next clue for stocks and crypto.
That’s all for today. Have a lovely evening, and make your decisions with a clear head!
This newsletter provides market information and analysis, not personalised investment advice.